When dealing with EB-5 visa wait time predictions, it is important to remember that wait times do not constitute official guarantees, yet it is equally important not to dismiss them entirely. It is impossible to calculate visa wait times with certainty because of the uncertainty of the variables included in the calculation, but rough estimates are useful for identifying problems with visa availability, even if wait times could be shorter or longer.
The most important factor influencing visa wait times is the volume of I-526 petitions: if many people file I-526 petitions, many people will eventually be eligible for visas. This volume of eligible applicants will lead to backlogs and longer wait times due to the visa quota constraint. Furthermore, people who file their petitions at the beginning of a surge in demand will experience shorter wait times than those who file at the end of such a surge.